As Many as 50 Percent
of People with COVID-19 Aren’t Aware They Have the Virus
- Researchers
say 25 percent to 50 percent of people with COVID-19 are unaware they have
the virus.
- This
allows the novel coronavirus to spread more rapidly throughout a community.
- Experts
say these carriers without symptoms make it even more important for people
to wear face masks in public.
All data and statistics are based on publicly available data at
the time of publication. Some information may be out of date.
There
may be a lot of people walking around who have COVID-19 but
have no idea they are spreading the virus.
The
first word of this possibility came in early April from the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) director, Dr. Robert Redfield, in an interview with
National Public Radio affiliate WABE.
“One of
the [pieces of] information that we have confirmed now is that a significant
number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may
be as many as 25 percent,” Redfield said.
Then a
few days later, researchers in Iceland reported that
50 percent of their novel coronavirus cases who tested positive had no
symptoms. The testing had been conducted by deCODE, a subsidiary of the U.S.
Biotech company Amgen.
In
another new report ,
the CDC stated that researchers in Singapore identified seven clusters of cases
in which presymptomatic transmission is the most likely explanation for the
occurrence of secondary cases.
That report
was backed up by a study published
in mid-April that concluded that people with no symptoms are the source of 44
percent of diagnosed COVID-19 cases.
In
addition, a study published
about the same time reported that people might be most contagious during the
period before they have symptoms.
Then,
in late April, it was reported that
the first known person to die from COVID-19 in the United States before she
died of a heart attack on February 6 at her home in Northern California
“Of
those of us that get symptomatic, it appears that we’re shedding significant
virus in our oropharyngeal compartment, probably up to 48 hours before we show
symptoms,” Redfield said. “This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues
to spread across the country because we have asymptomatic transmitters.”
How transmission works
“It
isn’t a strange idea with respiratory viruses that such an inadvertent
transmission could take place,” said Dr.
William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert from Vanderbilt
University Medical Center in Tennessee.
“It’s
to the virus’ benefit because if you have seemingly healthy people moving
around spreading the virus, that maximizes the transmission,” he told
Healthline. “Once you get sick, you tend to restrict your encounters with
others.”
To
demonstrate how fast the virus transmission works among people who may be
unwittingly infecting others, Dr. James
Hildreth, president and chief executive officer of Meharry Medical
College and an infectious disease expert, illustrated the spread in a public
service announcement.
He said
people who study virus spread assign viruses basic reproductive spread numbers.
“One
that comes to mind is measles. Measles is one of the most contagious viruses
we’ve ever known and its number is somewhere between 12 and 18,” Hildreth told
Healthline.
“By
comparison, the COVID-19 virus, it’s basic reproductive number appears to be
about 4. What that means is that each person who is infected by the virus has
the potential to spread it to four other persons in a susceptible population,”
he explained.
“If you
do the math, the number of people infected would double every 6 days or so. But
the actual data in some parts of the country is the virus is doubling every 3
days,” Hildreth added.
He
noted that this novel coronavirus that began in December 2019 in a market in
Wuhan, China, has infected 1.4 million people in 4 months.
“When you’re dealing with a virus like that, everything we can
do to break the chain of transmission is exceedingly important because there
are people who are spreading the virus and are not aware of it,” he sThis makes masks more important
After first telling the public
there was no need for anyone to wear a mask unless you were sick or coughing,
the CDC did an about-face in early April.
Now, the agency is recommending people
wear a face covering if they go to a public place.
They’ve posted instructions on
how to properly wear a cloth mask.
But does a cloth mask work?
“It actually works in both
directions,” said Schaffner. “But we’re more sure that masks inhibit the spread
out rather than the acquisition in.”
Why the CDC reversal?
“Two reasons. One is very
practical. Early on, they didn’t want there to be a run on masks and
respirators by the general public, siphoning them off from the healthcare
environment. That was a very real concern,” Schaffner said.
“The second thing is the
appreciation of presymptomatic transmission has become more evident over time,”
he added. “It takes a little bit of time for those discussions to go on and for
everyone to agree to ask the American public to do something that is culturally
alien.”
And Schaffner believes the
masks have a psychological benefit at a time when very little seems in our
control.
“Putting on a mask is something
I can do to help protect me and it will help protect my family. It makes people
feel good to do something,” he said. “And when you see others wearing a mask,
it builds a sense of community.”
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