Setakat mana ganasnya Corona Virus ?
Cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how
deadly the new coronavirus is
Outcomes suggest that,
in the real world, about 0.5 percent of COVID-19 infections in China end in
death
Exactly how deadly COVID-19 is remains up in the air. Limited testing and
undetected cases — people with no symptoms or
ones so mild they don’t seek medical attention — make it hard to pin down how
many are infected. And that number is crucial for calculating the ratio of
people who may die from COVID-19.
Enter
the Diamond Princess cruise
ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for
SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested
and few cases of infection were missed.
Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio
in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from
place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at
MedRxiv.org.
That
0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in
death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless. The
WHO’s number has come under fire because the true number of people infected
with the virus worldwide is not known.
Exactly how deadly COVID-19 is remains up in the air. Limited testing and
undetected cases — people with no symptoms or
ones so mild they don’t seek medical attention — make it hard to pin down how
many are infected. And that number is crucial for calculating the ratio of
people who may die from COVID-19.
Enter
the Diamond Princess cruise
ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for
SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.
Infections
and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio
in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from
place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at
MedRxiv.org.
That
0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in
death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless. The
WHO’s number has come under fire because the true number of people infected
with the virus worldwide is not known.
“How worried should we be?” says Timothy Russell, an
epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who does
mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks. “Well, it’s more severe than the flu.” Flu — which annually kills hundreds of thousands
worldwide — has an estimated 0.1 percent fatality rate.
As
of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed
that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328
of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms,
the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent,
Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent.
Those 70 and older were most vulnerable,
with an overall fatality ratio of about
7.3 percent.
Extrapolating
those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering
asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team
calculates.
These
ratios depend on available health care and public health measures, Russell
cautions. And there are still uncertainties in the data, he notes. For example,
some patients initially counted as asymptomatic may later develop symptoms, or
even die. So the true fatality rate may be somewhat higher, “0.6 or 0.7
[percent], but it’s still a good ratio.”
.
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